Measuring User Retention

Products thrive or die depending on their capability to attract and retain users. On the web measuring number of new users is usually not that hard, while measuring retention is usually much more difficult. Namely, most of the services hava a distinct event (registration, installation, activation) that can be used as a basis for counting new users, while users usually abandon the service only slowly and gradually. Measuring user churn therefore cannot be based on a distinctive event, but in most cases can only be measured indirectly by not observing any activity from the user in a given time. With the problem of measuring user churn solved, you can start measuring user retention. But once you do, you'll immediately encounter the problem that it's much bigger loss to loose a long time user than a user who was only doing a quick evaluation of your service. The right approach to solve this problem is to use cohort analysis. For the case of measuring user retention we consider a cohort to be a group of people who became users of our service within a defined period (e.g. on October 29th, 2012). With the cohort defined, the task of the cohort analysis is to track number of people within the cohort that are still using the service in subsequent periods.

Understanding cohort analysis is not easy, so let me present you with an example cohort analysis chart of one of our services.

In the chart above different lines represent user retention rate after X days. For example, the green line represents retention rate after a week. It shows that 79% of users that have joined our service on November 5th was still using our service yesterday, while the positive slope of the green line since October 29th indicates that the improvements we have done to our service in the past two weeks had a favorable effect on our user retention rate.